Coldwell Banker Premier Realty

Pricing Update, Case-Shiller & RPX

Nearly "stable"
Posted: May 27, 2010 by John McClelland

Recently the Case-Shiller numbers for March were released. The low-tier index (under $125,000) continues to be show an apparent improvement. The middle-tier ($125,000 to $192,000) and the high-tier (over $192,000) continues to be flat or slightly downward bias. The Radar Logic RPX demonstrates a similar pattern. Median indices, which we can calculate more currently, demonstrate continued flattening.

Who knows how much of this was market held up by the tax credit that expired in April. In the Las Vegas market, we have had so many investors purchasing that they don't really factor in to the tax credit portion unless they planned to flip. Thirty-six percent of the MLS single family sales from January to April were closed with cash. Another twenty-four percent was conventionally financed, which requires a higher downpayment than FHA loans. FHA composed 31% of the financing on sales so that is really the proportion that may have needed the tax credit carrot to make their deals make sense. It may be a while to see the effects of the tax credit and it will also be hard to disentangle. Anecdotally, we are personally seeing even greater investor traffic, especially from foreign buyers. This may offset the weaker demand from the tax credit type buyers. In addition, banks have never released as many REO's as they said they would. Anyhow its hard to ignore 1990's pricing and often 10+ cap rates on rentals.

  Source: Standard & Poors.

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